The Nelson Mandela Bay vote is still too early to predict
Thu, 04 Aug 2016 05:59:41
Current projections about who will rule Nelson Mandela Bay seem to have a fundamental flaw. The governing of the city is still way open. This is more so if the computer-aided systems extrapolate data from already captured wards.
The challenge with extrapolating from trends emerging from captured data is that the sample does not reflect a balanced geographic spread of traditional strongholds. For instance, a majority of the captured wards in Nelson Mandela Bay currently are mainly traditional DA constituencies.
While the DA, EFF, and UDM appear to have grown in traditional ANC constituencies, the impact of this growth, which appears to average 5%, is yet to be determined as more ANC strongholds get captured.