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Metro predictions

With over 50% counted no results in any of the metros have been declared.  Predictions of vote shares by the CSIR point to the ANC maintaining, as expected,  an absolute majority in Buffalo City, Mangaung .

The DA will consolidate its hold on Cape Town with two thirds of votes cast. Although predictions for eThekwini have not been released the metro is firmly held by the ANC. This means that a single party holds an absolute majority in half of the eight metros. In the remaining four metros, depending on the outcome of the ward component of the elections,  coalitions may be required. The DA is expected to get more votes than the ANC only in Nelson Mandela Bay (48% for DA and 42% for ANC).

In the remaining three metros (Tshwane, Ekuruhleni  and  Johannesburg) the ANC will get more votes than the DA.  In Tshwane there is only a one percent difference between the ANC and DA making the ward results crucial.  ANC can expect 42.8% of votes against the DA’s 41.6%. In Ekuruhleni  the ANC will get 48% against the DA’s 35%.  In the biggest metro of all the ANC is expected to pip the DA with 45% of votes against the DAs 39%. However in all four metros the margin is small and the outcome depends on who wins in individual wards. However if  the ward are allocation are in proportion to the vote shares coalitions will be required between the leading party and one other party. In every instance the smallest possible coalition between the leading party and a party other than the biggest competition is between the leading party and the EFF. pm

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