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The IFP set to lose its dominant position in Indaka?

Analyst Michael O’Donovan takes a look at the IFP’s track record and standing in the Indaka municipality in KwaZulu-Natal, in local elections.In 2011 the IFP got the highest number of votes in the Indaka municipality (KwaZulu-Natal) in Local Government Elections. It won 38% of the PR votes cast. By 2014 that proportion had fallen to 24%.

Projecting changes in voting patterns to August indicates that the ANC will now get the greatest share of votes and the IFP may become the official opposition.

The actual power balance in the municipality will depend on the ward component of votes but the projections are that the ANC will get more than 49% of the votes. With more votes than any other party the ANC will be able to form the government for KwaZulu-Natal.

Should the PR projections be correct, this election marks a turnaround in the fortunes of the IFP in municipal elections as several other KwaZulu-Natal municipalities are in a position similar to Indaka. The IFP seems set to lose its prominent position in what was once its powerbase, KwaZulu-Natal.

In 2011, the IFP received 22% of the PR vote in the smaller municipalities of Indaka. By 2014 that had dropped to 14%.

Unfortunately for the IFP, it is unlikely to benefit from the exclusion of the NFP from the elections. The NFP originally splintered from the IFP and draws on the same constituency.

In 2014, the NFP got 2% of votes nationally. Although rewinning this support would benefit the IFP it is far more likely that NFP supporters will just abstain from voting in August.

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